Saturday, April 7, 2012

Returns Per Unit of Stress | Fundoo Professor

Investment returns are typically measured in the form of returns per unit of risk.

?Risk? however does not mean the same thing to different people.

To most financial academics, risk is a measure of volatility, a proxy of which is the famous beta. At the other extreme is Warren Buffett who thinks of risk as ?probability of permanent loss of capital? and who claims that beta has nothing to do with risk.

While the debate about the meaning of risk between academics who are followers of models like CAPM (which, because it has beta in it, implicitly assumes ?beta to be a measure of risk) and value investors who follow Buffett is not going to end anytime soon, I propose that one should also think about measurement of investment returns based on ?returns per unit of stress.? This is particularly true for investors who manage their own money because how long a money manager who managers other people?s money, lives, is much more important to the manager than to his or her clients.

For proprietary investors (and maybe for all investors), stress should figure in one?s investment strategy, much more than it does, perhaps, even more than?financial risk, because stress is a killer and high stress situations ? whether they are high investment risk or low investment risk ? will always carry a high risk to one?s health. In fact, one can now measure how many years of one?s life is cut short by being exposed to a high stress life.

In my view, its no co-incidence, that day traders (who have very stressful lives) and who look like this?

? will possibly not live very long, while spiritual, long term investors like John Templeton, who lived till he was 95, looked like this:

If one was to think about stressful way of investing vs. a relatively stress-free way of investing, what would the differences look like??The following table offers some suggestions.

High Stress

Low or No Stress

Investing in Highly Leveraged Companies Investing in Zero or Low Debt Companies
Borrowing to buy stocks Never borrowing for buying straight equities
High Frequency Trading & Day Trading Long Term Investing
Shorting Long Only Investing
Cigar Butts Moats
Business exposed to Negative Black Swans e.g. Banking and Commodity Trading Businesses not exposed to black swans
Corporate Governance Issues No Corporate Governance Issues
High P/E for Growth Stocks Low P/E for Growth Stocks
Cyclicals Stable businesses
Hostile Takeovers Passive Investing
Dealing in F&O Staying Away from F&O
Trading on Inside Information Avoiding inside information
Event Driven Investing Moats Driven Investing

You cannot take it away with you, so what?s the point of all that stress, just for the money?

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